Portland and Seattle won 1st and 2nd picks respectively in the just concluded 2007 NBA Lottery. They get to pick 1st in what is perceived to be one of the deepest drafts in the past decade.
Headlining this year's lineup are Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. The debate here again is do you pick the once-in-a-decade 7-foot center with huge potential upside, or do you pick the polished college guy with the sure talent and skills? Whomever they get to pick, both Portland and Seattle are already regarded as winners. But there are a lot of what-ifs and history shows us of the mistakes made in the past.
For example, what if the Houston Rockets picked Michael Jordan (3rd pick) instead of Hakeem Olajuwon as the top pick in the 1984 Draft? Although Hakeem won 2 championships, MJ won 6 and is regarded as the best ever to lace up a pair of basketball shoes.
What if Michael Jordan (as the Wizards' GM) picked Pau Gasol (3rd pick) or Joe Johnson (10th pick) instead of Kwame Brown as the top pick in the 2001 Draft? It would've been nice for Agent Zero to have Caron, Jamison and Pau!
The LA Clippers picked Olowokandi as the 1st pick in the 1998 Draft. Can you imagine top Clipper Elton Brand now playing beside either Vince Carter (5th), Antawn Jamison (4th), Paul Pierce (10th) or Dirk Nowitzki (9th)?
Of course these are purely what-if scenarios. Tough as it is, it's almost impossible to predict how things can turn out or who would be the best of the bunch. Kwame was considered raw 7-foot center, but so were Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire. Up to now they're still debating the Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafur pick. Almost all of the past seven drafts have put height over talent:
2006 Bargnani 6'10 (Brandon Roy 6'6 6th pick ROY)
2005 Bogut 7'0 (Chris Paul 6'3 4th pick ROY)
2002 Yao 7'5 (Amare Stoudemire 6'10 9th pick ROY)
2000 Martin 6'9 (Mike Miller 6'7 5th pick ROY)
2003 Lebron James as 1st pick, but Darko Milicic 7'0 over Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade
2001 1st Kwame Brown 6'11, 2nd Tyson Chandler 7'0, 3rd Pau Gasol 7'0, 4th Eddie Curry 7'0. Only 1 made the all-rookie 1st and 2nd teams.
All-Rookie team was Gasol, Battier 6'8, Kirilenko 6'8, Parker 6'2, jason Richardson 6'6
Other notables in 2nd team were Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, Jamaal Tinsley
How will the picks end up this year? Oden might be the next David Robinson, or even Bill Russell. Durant might be a 6'10 Tracy McGrady. Draft day is near and there looks to be a lot more wheeling-and-dealing before we know which team drafts which player.
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